College football analyst Josh Pate is no stranger to stirring strong conversations, and his recent comments about LSU’s outlook for the 2025 season are raising eyebrows across the SEC. On a recent episode of Late Kick Live, Pate broke down what he sees as a “looming crisis” in Baton Rouge, casting doubt on the Tigers’ ability to contend for national relevance under head coach Brian Kelly if core problems aren’t addressed.
“It’s not crazy,” Pate emphasized, responding to rising skepticism about LSU’s current trajectory. “You look at the warning signs—defensive inconsistency, development issues, and the inability to finish in critical moments—this isn’t just a bump in the road. This is a flashing red light.”
A Program at a Crossroads
Brian Kelly arrived in Baton Rouge ahead of the 2022 season with the expectations of reviving a championship-caliber program. His debut season brought hope, with an unexpected SEC West title and a dominant win over Alabama. But since then, LSU has struggled to maintain consistency—particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
Despite having elite offensive talent and a Heisman-caliber quarterback in Jayden Daniels during the 2023 season, the Tigers fell short of playoff contention due to one of the worst statistical defenses among Power Five programs. That trend, Pate argues, has not been adequately corrected as the program enters the 2025 campaign.
“You can’t keep showing up with a Ferrari on offense and a bicycle on defense and expect to beat teams like Georgia, Texas, or even Ole Miss,” Pate said. “Eventually, those flaws get exposed.”
Defensive Turmoil
The heart of the issue lies with LSU’s defense. Coordinator changes, transfer portal turbulence, and missed evaluations in recruiting have left the Tigers with a patchwork unit unable to consistently perform at the elite SEC level.
Pate noted that while LSU has continued to attract blue-chip talent, player development has lagged behind. “Recruiting rankings only tell half the story,” he said. “You can bring in five-stars, but if they’re not coached up or if you’re switching schemes every year, the results will reflect that chaos.”
In 2024, LSU’s defense ranked outside the top 80 nationally in several key categories, including third-down conversion rate and red zone efficiency. For a team with playoff ambitions, those numbers are unacceptable—and they may continue to drag down the program if not urgently addressed.
Culture and Consistency
Another concern Pate pointed out is the program’s internal culture and identity. While Kelly has brought structure and accountability, some critics argue that LSU lacks the edge and swagger that defined their 2019 national championship team under Ed Orgeron.
“You’re dealing with a new era of college football,” Pate explained. “With NIL, the transfer portal, and players more mobile than ever, programs need a strong cultural core. Right now, I don’t know what LSU’s is.”
Kelly, known for his methodical and at times rigid approach, may be facing a mismatch with the kind of personality-driven culture that has historically fueled LSU’s best teams. Pate suggested that unless Kelly evolves to better connect with his roster, the Tigers risk losing ground to more adaptable programs.
What’s at Stake in 2025?
The 2025 season could be pivotal for Kelly’s tenure. With the SEC expanding to include Texas and Oklahoma, the path to the College Football Playoff becomes even more treacherous. LSU’s schedule includes matchups against Alabama, Texas, and Florida, along with emerging threats like Missouri and Kentucky.
Failure to make a strong push this year could lead to increased pressure from boosters and fans, many of whom expected a quicker return to championship contention.
“This isn’t about firing Brian Kelly,” Pate clarified. “It’s about acknowledging that the same problems keep showing up—and if they’re not fixed soon, you could see this team go from playoff hopeful to middle of the pack.”
The Path Forward
Still, all is not lost in Baton Rouge. LSU continues to recruit at a high level and boasts an elite quarterback room and playmakers across the offensive side of the ball. The key will be whether Kelly can stabilize the defense and establish a clear program identity.
If not, Pate warns, the Tigers could be looking at another season of “what-ifs.”
“This isn’t panic. It’s realism,” he concluded. “If LSU doesn’t get its house in order, 2025 could be the year the program takes a real step backward—and in this conference, that’s a dangerous place to be.”
